Polish election: Exit polls suggest right-wing ruling party to lose majority

 

• Exit polls suggest that the right-wing populist Law and Justice party (PiS) is on course to win most seats in Poland's general election, but is unlikely to secure a third term in office.
• If the exit polls are correct, then Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition has a better chance of forming a coalition.
• PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski admitted that he did not know if the party's "success will be able to be turned into another term in power".
• Civic Coalition leader Donald Tusk described the vote as Poland's most important since the fall of communism and vital for its future in the European Union.
• He has vowed to improve relations with the EU and unlock €36bn (£30bn) of EU Covid pandemic recovery funds frozen in a row over PiS judicial reforms that led to staffing top courts with judges sympathetic to the ruling party.
• Mr Tusk's party is now most likely to be able to form a broad coalition, with centre-right Third Way and left-wing Lewica.

What happens next?

• President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the socially conservative ruling party, would normally ask the biggest party to form a government, and his aide indicated that was the traditional next step.
• But if PiS fails to win a vote of confidence, then parliament would appoint a new prime minister who would then choose a government and also have to win a confidence vote in the Sejm.
• That would leave PiS as Poland's caretaker government potentially into December.
• Five parties are set to cross the 5% threshold and enter the 460-seat Sejm or parliament.
• Poles also voted for the upper house, the Senate, and took part in four referendums that all appeared designed to bring PiS voters out to vote.

Conclusion

Poland's election results are still preliminary, but they suggest that the country is poised for a change in government after eight years of rule by the Law and Justice party.

The outcome of the election will have a significant impact on Poland's future, both domestically and in its relations with the European Union.